Waco economic snapshot shows continued improvement
Waco-area shoppers had an extra $500 million burning holes in their pockets this year compared to 2020, spending that much more through October, Amarillo economist Karr Ingham reported in his Greater Waco Economic Index.
“This represents real growth, as the recovery from COVID-induced declines occurred over a year ago,” Ingham wrote, trying to short-circuit suggestions year-over-year improvement must carry a pandemic-imposed asterisk.
Ingham’s October economic snapshot, released this week, shows improvement in nearly every category. Retail spending reached $363 million in October, up nearly 13% from the same month last year. Spending topped $3.7 billion for the year through October, up from $3.2 billion.
“General spending across the greater Waco metro area continues its impressive growth with inflation-adjusted spending per sales tax receipts in October up by 12.6% compared to October of a year ago, and real spending for the year-to-date up by 15% compared to the first 10 months of a year ago,” Ingham said in a summary prepared for business leaders.
Ingham’s GWEI is sponsored by the First National Bank of Central Texas and the Tribune-Herald. He uses data dating to 2000 to track performance in housing, automobile sales, employment and spending.
The GWEI in October attained a 142.2 raw score, up from 141.9 in September and from 132 in October last year. The index suffered its “trough,” or low point, in June 2020, when it fell to 129.4, Ingham reported.
“The Waco metro area economy is putting together an impressive year of growth, and that will be the case no matter what happens to the Greater Waco Economic Index in the final two months of the year, not that there is any reason to suspect the index will not continue to improve in November and December as well,” Ingham wrote.
Ingham uses sales tax rebates to Waco, Bellmead, Beverly Hills, Hewitt, Lacy Lakeview, McGregor, Robinson, West and Woodway to calculate spending.
About a year ago at this time, Amazon began construction on its 700,000-square-foot fulfillment center on Exchange Parkway. Construction was valued at more than $250 million, which pushed the total dollar valuation of building permits issued in October last year to $284 million. Building permit valuation dropped drastically, to $14.7 million, in October this year.
“The 95% year-over-year decline reflects that phenomenon, and incredibly, only pulled the year-to-date total to a mere 9.5% down compared to the total through the first 10 months of a year ago,” Ingham wrote. “And again, these are inflation-adjusted numbers, so comparisons over time are accurate.”
Building permits for commercial and industrial projects through October total $543 million in value, down from $600 million a year ago.
Permits to build single-family homes totaled 38 in October, up from 36 a year earlier. Such permits for the year through October totaled 571, down from 573.
Existing home sales totaled 303 in October, up from 292 the same month last year, while sales through October totaled 2,933, a 3.2% increase.
Spending on automobiles continues to run hot, topping $719 million for the year through October, well above the $627 million last year.
“The raw motor vehicle sales tax total suggests a year-over-year increase in October of over 12%; however, when the inflation adjustment is applied, real growth in auto spending amounted to only about 1.8% in October compared to the October 2020 total,” Ingham said. “Even with inflation taking a considerable bite out of auto spending, the inflation-adjusted total for the year-to-date is still up by nearly 15% compared to the total through October 2020.”
The area’s economy added 900 jobs in October, Ingham wrote, citing seasonally adjusted data.
“Employment fully recovered the COVID losses in May of this year and has continued to improve since then, meaning new employment records are now being set in Waco,” Ingham said.
The local economy has added about 4,700 jobs over the past 12 months. The 4.1% jobless rate is below the 5.5% rate a year ago in October, but remains higher than the 3.1% of October 2019, Ingham reported.
“The unemployment rate virtually always lags behind the payroll employment trends, so this is not of tremendous concern, and the unemployment rate continues its post-COVID steady decline,” Ingham said.
Mashed by the pandemic, the lodging industry continues to surge. Hotel revenue hit $6.6 million in October, doubling last year’s total, and reached $61 million through October, a 96% increase, Ingham reported.
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